Capacity Market
Today, National Grid ESO published its Winter Outlook for 2022/23, updating its position since the early outlook issued in July, which was widely seen as unrealistic. The position in July was that a capacity margin of 4.0 GW was expected, a small increase on [...]
I have received a response from National Grid ESO to some of my questions on the Early Outlook for Winter 2022. In this post I update my analysis and add some further commentary on the risks to energy security this winter. Reliance on interconnectors [...]
Today National Grid ESO has published its early view of the Winter Outlook for 2022/23. Unbelievably, it believes the capacity margin will be slightly higher than last year at 4.0 GW compared with 3.9 GW. This strikes me as extreme wishful thinking which does [...]
On Monday 18 July, National Grid ESO issued two Capacity Market Notices, the first at for 7pm which was cancelled after about half an hour, and the second for 8pm which was cancelled with fewer than 10 mins to go before the start of the [...]
Ever since I began my blog I have been warning about falling winter capacity margins and the risks to security of supply in the British electricity market. There are compelling reasons why this winter may see these concerns crystallise into real risks to energy [...]
Last week the Government authorised the procurement volumes for the Capacity Market auctions to be held in February. While Kwasi Kwarteng accepted National Grid ESO’s recommendation for the T-4 auction to be held on 22 February, he decided to authorise a T-1 volume 650 [...]
March saw the latest capacity market auctions: the T-1 auction for delivery in 2021/22 was held on the 12th and the T-4 auction for 2024/25 was concluded on 22nd. The assets leaving the auction compared with those succeeding highlight changes that are taking place [...]
There are signs of squeezed power market supply and demand margins. Last week saw National Grid ESO issue two Electricity Margin Notices (the new name for the Notice of Inadequate System Margin, or “NISM”), warning of a potential shortfall in electricity generation in the [...]
Since the capacity market was authorised to re-start last October, following its suspension, there have been three auctions: a T-3 auction for the delivery year 2022/23, replacing the missed T-4 auction, a T-1 auction for 2020/21 and a T-4 auction for 2023/24. Capacity market [...]
The June 2019 capacity auction for delivery next winter cleared at the record low price of 77p /kW, with 129 units securing contracts covering 3.6 GW of capacity. The previous T-1 auction in February 2018 cleared at £6 /kW for 5.8 GW of capacity, [...]